AutoZone (AZO) Up 2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for AutoZone (AZO). Shares have added about 2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AutoZone due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for AutoZone, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.AutoZone Q3 Earnings Beat EstimatesAutoZone posted third-quarter fiscal 2026 (ended May 9, 2026) earnings per share of $38.07, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $36.18 by 5.2%. Earnings per share rose 7.7% from $35.36 a year ago. The company’s net sales increased 8.4% year over year to $4.84 billion, but fell short of the consensus mark of $4.86 billion by about 0.5%. Domestic same-store sales increased 4.1% in the quarter, led by strong commercial momentum.Sales Growth Accelerates on Commercial MomentumIn the reported quarter, domestic commercial sales totaled $1.4 billion, up from $1.27 billion in the year-ago period. Total sales represented the company’s largest year-over-year growth in more than three years, reflecting faster top-line momentum versus the first half of fiscal 2026. Total company same-store sales rose 3.9% on a constant-currency basis, supported by a 4.1% domestic comp and a 1.6% international comp on the same basis.The mix of growth also leaned favorably. Domestic do-it-yourself sales rose 2.2% in the quarter, while domestic commercial sales increased 10.4%. The commercial outperformance was driven by better inventory availability at satellite stores, broader Hub and Mega-Hub coverage, and continued gains tied to service speed and delivery improvements.Profitability Reflects LIFO and Mix PressureGross profit rose to $2.52 billion from $2.35 billion in the prior-year quarter. Gross profit margin was 52.2%, down 57 basis points from the year-ago period. A $20 million non-cash LIFO charge in the quarter, which contrasted with a $16 million LIFO credit in the prior-year quarter, weighed on the year-over-year margin comparison.Operating profit increased 6.6% to $923.8 million. Operating expenses were 33.1% of sales versus 33.3% last year, indicating modest leverage despite the faster store growth cadence. Net income rose to $641.5 million from $608.4 million a year ago.Store Growth Push Builds Scale Across RegionsAutoZone continued to add stores at a faster pace. During the quarter, it opened 82 new stores globally, including 57 in the United States, 20 in Mexico and five in Brazil. Total store count ended at 7,856, consisting of 6,766 in the United States, 933 in Mexico and 157 in Brazil. The company continues to expand its commercial footprint. Mega-Hubs acted as a key driver of improved parts availability, as these locations typically carry a significantly broader SKU count and can lift both commercial and retail demand by shortening delivery times in local markets.Capital Returns Remain a Key FeatureShare repurchases stayed sizable in the quarter. AutoZone bought back 164,000 shares for $586.3 million at an average price of $3,582 per share, ending the period with $0.8 billion remaining under its current authorization. Liquidity remained solid alongside a leveraged balance sheet structure typical of the company’s capital strategy. Cash and cash equivalents were $253.7 million as of May 9, 2026, while total debt stood at $9.02 billion, down from $8.8 billion as of May 10, 2025. The company reported a leverage ratio of 2.5x EBITDAR.Inventory Position Tracks Growth and InflationInventory continued to build as the company invests to support growth initiatives and new stores. Merchandise inventories rose 10.8% year over year to $7.56 billion. Inventory per store increased to $962,000 from $908,000 in the year-ago quarter. Net inventory, defined as merchandise inventory less accounts payable, remained negative on a per-store basis. Net inventory per store was negative $107,000 compared with negative $142,000 last year, while accounts payable as a percentage of inventory was 111.1% compared with 115.6% a year ago.Q4 Commentary Centers on Inflation and LIFOThe company expects inflation and ticket growth to moderate in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, with commentary pointing to a mid-4% range for ticket trends as the company laps higher inflation from the prior year. It also expects a planned non-cash LIFO charge of approximately $30 million for the fourth quarter, which would pressure gross margin and earnings per share versus a more favorable prior-year LIFO comparison. The company expects weather-related softness late in the quarter, affecting certain heat-driven categories, while reiterating confidence in summer performance given ongoing execution initiatives. Internationally, the company expects a softer macro environment in Mexico and Brazil, with expectations for constant-currency same-store sales in a range similar to the third quarter.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.VGM ScoresCurrently, AutoZone has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, AutoZone has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is HereThe AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. AI’s second wave is moving from infrastructure to implementation and these companies are at the forefront of this transition, positioned to become what Amazon and Google were to the internet era.See Stocks Now >>This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks