Cameco Surges 101% in a Year: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Cameco Corporation CCJ has surged 101% in the past year, outperforming the industry’s 25.5% growth. Over the same period, the Zacks Oils and Energy sector has gained 37.8% and the S&P 500 rose 31.3%.Meanwhile, uranium peers Energy Fuels UUUU and Uranium Energy UEC have delivered even stronger returns over the past year.  Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFrom a technical standpoint, Cameco has been trading above both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), signaling sustained upward momentum. The stock’s strength reflects investor confidence in the company’s operational execution, financial position and long-term growth prospects.CCJ Trading Above 50-Day & 200-Day Moving AverageImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhile the impressive rally may attract investors, it is important to assess the drivers behind the stock’s performance and determine whether the momentum is sustainable or if potential risks could weigh on future returns.Cameco Strong Q1 Performance Driven by Uranium SegmentCameco reported first-quarter revenues of CAD 845 million ($616 million), up 7% year over year, as stronger uranium results offset softer fuel services performance.Uranium production was up 3% year over year to 6.2 million pounds, while sales volumes climbed 13% to 7.8 million pounds. Uranium revenues increased 15% to CAD712 million ($520 million), supported by higher realized prices and volumes. Fuel Services revenues dipped 1% to CAD 134 million ($98 million), as higher delivery volumes were offset by lower average selling prices.Adjusted earnings surged 194% year over year to CAD 0.47 (34 cents) per share in the quarter, benefiting from higher revenues and stronger equity earnings from its 49% interest in Westinghouse Electric Company.Cameco to Increase Stake in Cigar LakeCameco recently announced plans to acquire a portion of TEPCO’s 5% interest in Cigar Lake for $115.75 million, subject to customary closing adjustments. Expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, the transaction will increase Cameco’s ownership from 54.547% to 57.418%. The move further strengthens the company’s exposure to one of the world's highest-grade and longest-life uranium assets.Cameco 2026 Outlook Points to Lower Uranium RevenuesCameco expects uranium production to be 19.5-21.5 million pounds for 2026. Of this, its share from Cigar Lake is expected to be 9.5-10 million pounds and McArthur River contribution is anticipated at 10.0-11.5 million pounds.In early May, severe flooding in northern Saskatchewan caused a partial collapse of the Smoothstone River Bridge, a vital transportation link for delivering supplies to the McArthur River and Key Lake sites. While the sites were not directly affected by floodwaters, Cameco had halted operations.  The company has now established a reliable flow of critical supplies through a secondary transportation route, enabling both operations to return to full production. Cameco also maintained the full-year guidance for McArthur River.Meanwhile, following the closure of the deal to increase the stake in Cigar Lake, the guidance from the mine is expected to be revised subsequently.   For 2026, Cameco expects uranium deliveries of 29–32 million pounds. Uranium revenues are projected in the range of CAD 2.54–2.73 billion, based on an average realized price of CAD 85–89 per pound. At the midpoint, this implies a roughly 7% year-over-year decline due to lower volumes. The fuel services segment is expected to fare better, with revenues projected at CAD 590-630 million, suggesting a 9% increase from 2025 levels. Cameco’s total revenue guidance for the year is CAD 3.13-3.37 billion. The midpoint suggests a 7% decline from the CAD 3.482 billion in revenues reported in 2025. CCJ’s Estimates Suggest Growth, Revisions Seem MixedThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2026 indicates year-over-year growth of 28.2%. The same for 2027 implies growth of 59.2%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhile the consensus estimate for 2026 earnings has moved down over the past 60 days, the same for 2027 has moved up, as shown in the chart below.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchCameco’s Valuation Remains ElevatedCCJ stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 19.31 compared with the industry’s 5.33. Its Value Score of F also suggests an expensive valuation. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThat said, Cameco is trading lower than Energy Fuels, which is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 27.48, and Uranium Energy, which is trading at a loftier 88.86.CCJ’s Long-Term Uranium Thesis Remains StrongCameco's long-term growth story remains compelling. The company has contracted commitments to deliver approximately 230 million pounds of uranium, averaging about 28 million pounds annually over the next five years. In Fuel Services, strong demand and elevated UF6 conversion prices have helped secure additional long-term contracts, with total contracted volumes reaching roughly 83 million kgU of UF6.The uranium industry is benefiting from renewed global interest in nuclear energy. Governments worldwide are increasingly embracing nuclear power as a reliable source of low-carbon electricity and a critical component of long-term energy security strategies. Cameco’s uranium production capacity accounts for nearly 15% of global output and it is further investing to expand production to capture favorable market conditions. This includes extending Cigar Lake’s mine life to 2036 and ramping up output at McArthur River and Key Lake toward their licensed annual capacity of 25 million pounds (100% basis).Should You Buy Cameco Stock Now?With low-cost, high-grade assets and a diversified nuclear fuel cycle portfolio, Cameco is well-positioned to benefit from sustained growth in nuclear energy demand. Supported by a strong balance sheet, the company is making investments (the most recent being its announced deal to increase its stake in Cigar Lake) to boost its capacity to capitalize on the expected surge in uranium demand. However, new investors can wait for a better entry point, considering the premium valuation and mixed earnings estimate revisions. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.9% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks