Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold McKesson Before Q4 Earnings?

McKesson Corporation MCK is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 7, after market close.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is pegged at $101.92 billion, implying 12.2% year-over-year growth. The bottom line estimate is pinned at $11.56, suggesting growth of 14.2%.The EPS estimates have remained stable over the past seven days.The company delivered an earnings surprise of 0.32% in the last reported quarter. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 3.60%.McKesson Corporation Price and EPS Surprise McKesson Corporation price-eps-surprise | McKesson Corporation QuoteWhat the Zacks Model UnveilsOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for McKesson this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you will see below.Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate is -0.07% for MCK. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.Factors Likely to Have Driven Q4 PerformanceMcKesson is expected to have delivered another solid quarterly performance in the fiscal fourth quarter, supported by continued momentum across its oncology and multispecialty platform, strength in biopharma services, and resilient pharmaceutical distribution trends. Management highlighted broad-based demand across specialty distribution and stable utilization trends in the prior quarter, while raising full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $38.80-$39.20, implying confidence in sustained operational execution.The North American Pharmaceutical segment likely remained the primary growth engine, benefiting from higher prescription volumes, specialty product distribution strength, and continued GLP-1 demand. GLP-1 distribution revenues rose 26% year over year in the prior quarter to $14 billion, and management suggested that the category continues to expand despite variability in quarterly trends. Specialty distribution growth from health systems and retail national accounts is also expected to have supported segment profitability.Operational efficiency initiatives, including AI-enabled workflow automation and improved inventory management, likely aided margins. However, branded drug price reductions under IRA-related dynamics might have modestly pressured reported revenue growth, even though management indicated limited bottom-line impact.Within Oncology and Multispecialty, performance is expected to have remained particularly strong, driven by provider expansion, specialty drug volumes, and contributions from recent acquisitions, such as Florida Cancer Specialists and PRISM Vision. On its third-quarter earnings call, management noted strong integration progress and favorable operating margin trends, supported by higher specialty mix and AI-enabled productivity enhancements. Organic operating profit growth previously reached 15%, underscoring healthy underlying demand in community oncology and multispecialty care.Prescription Technology Solutions is also likely to have sustained robust growth, supported by increasing demand for access and affordability programs, prior authorization services, and annual verification activity. McKesson added more than 50 new programs across 43 brands during the fiscal third quarter, reflecting strong biopharma demand for patient access solutions. Investments in automation and digital enrollment capabilities likely continued to improve productivity and operating leverage.Medical-Surgical Solutions may have remained comparatively softer due to weaker physician office volumes and a mild illness season, which management previously flagged as a headwind.Price PerformanceShares of McKesson have lost 9.3% so far this year compared with the industry’s 7.5% decline. The S&P 500 Index has increased 6.9% in the same time frame.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchConclusionMcKesson is expected to have delivered another strong quarter, driven by specialty distribution growth, oncology expansion, and robust demand for biopharma access solutions. Continued operational efficiencies, AI-led productivity gains, and successful integration of recent acquisitions likely supported profitability, despite softer medical-surgical trends and ongoing regulatory and pricing-related market pressures. We advise investors to stay on the sidelines until clearer fourth-quarter signals emerge. However, existing investors can continue to hold the stock.Stocks Worth a LookHere are some medical product stocks worth considering as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat next reporting cycle.West Pharmaceutical Services WST has an Earnings ESP of +0.80% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.WST’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 19.37%. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, WST’s second-quarter EPS is expected to improve 12% from the year-ago reported figure.Cardinal Health CAH has an Earnings ESP of +0.24% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.CAH’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 10.27%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAH’s fiscal fourth-quarter EPS implies growth of 14.9% from the year-ago reported figure.Henry Schein HSIC has an Earnings ESP of +2.71% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.HSIC’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 3.74%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HSIC’s second-quarter EPS implies a gain of 8.2% from the year-ago reported figure.Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is HereThe AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. AI’s second wave is moving from infrastructure to implementation and these companies are at the forefront of this transition, positioned to become what Amazon and Google were to the internet era.See Stocks Now >>This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks