Can Etsy Stock Sustain Marketplace GMS Growth Through 2026?

Etsy, Inc. ETSY entered 2026 with renewed momentum, but the bigger question is whether its marketplace gross merchandise sales (GMS) growth can remain sustainable through the rest of the year. The first quarter offered encouraging evidence that the company is rebuilding the marketplace on stronger operating fundamentals rather than relying solely on temporary tailwinds.Marketplace GMS increased 5.5% year over year to $2.5 billion, with the growth rate improving 540 basis points from the fourth quarter. Management said progress in product development and marketing is translating into improvements across marketplace fundamentals, while foreign exchange tailwinds and a softer prior-year comparison also supported the performance.What makes the current recovery more meaningful is the shift in customer behavior. Active buyers posted sequential growth for the first time in two years, new buyers and active sellers increased year over year, while GMS per active buyer rose for the first time since late 2022, reaching $122 on a trailing 12-month basis. Etsy's mobile app continues to play a central role, with app GMS increasing 11.2% year over year and accounting for roughly 47% of marketplace GMS. Management said the momentum reflects continued investments in machine learning, personalization and improved product discovery.Management expects some first-quarter benefits, including foreign exchange tailwinds and tariff-related average order value increases, to moderate as the year progresses. Even so, it expects continued progress in product discovery, personalization and customer engagement initiatives to further strengthen marketplace fundamentals through the remainder of 2026.During the earnings call, management reiterated its expectation for year-over-year marketplace GMS growth in every quarter of 2026 and forecast full-year growth in the low single digits. ETSY guided second-quarter marketplace GMS to be between $2.48 billion and $2.53 billion, implying 3% to 5% year-over-year growth.How eBay & Shopify Compare With Etsy on Marketplace GrowtheBay Inc. EBAY also delivered a strong marketplace performance in the first quarter of 2026, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) rising 14% year over year to $22.2 billion. eBay said growth was broad-based across major categories, supported by faster momentum in collectibles, motors, electronics and fashion, while AI-powered seller tools, Live commerce and consumer-to-consumer initiatives continued to improve marketplace engagement. Management expects eBay's GMV growth to moderate in the second quarter as some category-specific tailwinds ease, but reaffirmed confidence in sustained marketplace momentum through the remainder of 2026. Shopify Inc. SHOP also continued to deliver healthy marketplace expansion, with first-quarter 2026 GMV increasing 35% year over year to $101 billion. Shopify attributed the performance to balanced growth across merchant sizes, geographies and sales channels, while AI capabilities such as Sidekick and integrations with ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot and Google continued to support merchant growth. Management highlighted accelerating online, offline and B2B commerce trends and expects Shopify to maintain strong momentum, supported by continued investments. The consistent GMV growth underscores Shopify's ability to scale merchant sales despite an evolving commerce landscape.What the Latest Metrics Say About EtsyEtsy has seen its shares jump 45.9% over the past three months compared with the industry’s 7.9% rise.  Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFrom a valuation standpoint, Etsy's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 12.35, lower than the industry’s ratio of 21.21. ETSY is also trading below its 12-month median level of 20. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Etsy's earnings per share has seen an upward revision. The consensus estimate for the current fiscal year has risen from $3.76 to $3.82, while the estimate for the next fiscal year has increased from $4.30 to $4.59 over the past 60 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchEtsy currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. 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